Forecasting national income based on a modified Keynesian model
( Pp. 170-175)
More about authors
Natalia V. Kontsevaya
Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Mathematics
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Moscow, Russian Federation
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Moscow, Russian Federation
Abstract:
The paper considers several ideas that can be useful in a systematic approach to the analysis of both the dynamics of macro indicators and regression models based on such series. Approaches to accounting for seasonal fluctuations in econometric modeling are analyzed. Numerical experiments with models of different types of seasonality accounting are carried out, conclusions and recommendations are formulated. The best results in practice are obtained using adaptive modeling based on the multiplicative model of seasonality accounting. The possibilities of constructing forecast estimates are shown on the example of studying the dynamics of current trends in the Russian economy. A modification of the Keynes model for the open economy is proposed, on the basis of which it is possible to estimate future levels of national income. The results of forecasting based on the modified model are shown in comparison with the actual levels.
How to Cite:
Natalia V.K., (2021), FORECASTING NATIONAL INCOME BASED ON A MODIFIED KEYNESIAN MODEL. Economic Problems and Legal Practice, 2 => 170-175.
Reference list:
Besomi D. (1999) From a Dynamics of Causes to a Dynamics of Effects: the Essay in Dynamic Theory . In: The Making of Harrod s Dynamics. Studies in the History of Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London
Eucken W. (1992) Stages and Styles of Economic Development. In: The Foundations of Economics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Franke R., Semmler W. (1992) Expectation Dynamics, Financing of Investment and Business Cycles. In: Profits, Deficits and Instability. Palgrave Macmillan, London
Grandmont, Jean-Michel. On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles. Econometrica, vol. 53, no. 5, 1985, pp. 995-1045.
Greenwald, Bruce and Stiglitz, Joseph E., Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles (1988). NBER Working Paper No. w2494
Keynes J.M. Collected Writings, edited by D. Moggrodge, Macmillan, Vol.14, 1973
Kuenne R.E. (1992) Walras, Leontief and the Interdependence of Economic Activities. In: General Equilibrium Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London
Dzhonston Dzh. Ekonometricheskie metody // M.: Statistika, 1980. - s.343-345
Kontsevaya N.V. TSiklichnost na rynke truda molodezhi: o podkhode k vyboru modeli dlya ucheta sezonnosti // Ekonomika i upravlenie: problemy, resheniya . - t.5 №5, 2018 - s. 95-98
Skidel ski R. Keyns. Vozvrashchenie Mastera // M.: YUnayted Press. 2011. - 253 c.
Eucken W. (1992) Stages and Styles of Economic Development. In: The Foundations of Economics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Franke R., Semmler W. (1992) Expectation Dynamics, Financing of Investment and Business Cycles. In: Profits, Deficits and Instability. Palgrave Macmillan, London
Grandmont, Jean-Michel. On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles. Econometrica, vol. 53, no. 5, 1985, pp. 995-1045.
Greenwald, Bruce and Stiglitz, Joseph E., Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles (1988). NBER Working Paper No. w2494
Keynes J.M. Collected Writings, edited by D. Moggrodge, Macmillan, Vol.14, 1973
Kuenne R.E. (1992) Walras, Leontief and the Interdependence of Economic Activities. In: General Equilibrium Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London
Dzhonston Dzh. Ekonometricheskie metody // M.: Statistika, 1980. - s.343-345
Kontsevaya N.V. TSiklichnost na rynke truda molodezhi: o podkhode k vyboru modeli dlya ucheta sezonnosti // Ekonomika i upravlenie: problemy, resheniya . - t.5 №5, 2018 - s. 95-98
Skidel ski R. Keyns. Vozvrashchenie Mastera // M.: YUnayted Press. 2011. - 253 c.
Keywords:
Keynes model, GDP forecasting, seasonality allocation, regression model, Holt-Winters model.
Related Articles
