Modification of Adaptive Approaches in the Modeling of Electricity Production in the Russian Federation
( Pp. 228-234)
More about authors
Natalia V. Kontsevaya
Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Mathematics
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Moscow, Russian Federation
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Moscow, Russian Federation
Abstract:
The paper presents an overview of methods for modeling nonlinear dynamics and provides recommendations for choosing a suitable model by analyzing the dynamics of growth rates of electricity production in Russia. A modified autoregression model is proposed as the best approximation, on the basis of which it is possible to estimate a short-term forecast. The economic analysis and justification of the division of the initial sample were carried out, the quality and accuracy of the constructed model were evaluated, conclusions were drawn.
How to Cite:
Natalia V.K., (2022), MODIFICATION OF ADAPTIVE APPROACHES IN THE MODELING OF ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION. Economic Problems and Legal Practice, 2 => 228-234.
Reference list:
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Sinitsyn S.A. // Energy security and energy saving. -2009, No. 6, pp. 28-33.
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Federal Law No. 35-FZ of 26.03.2003 (as amended on 27.12.2019) «On Electric Power»
[Electronic resource]: https://journal.tinkoff.ru/news/review-rus-energy / (date of formation: 04/28/2022).
[Electronic resource] IEA. The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy de-mand and CO2 emissions.: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020/context-a-world-in-lockdown#abstract (accessed: 04/28/2022).
[Electronic resource] JSC «SO UES» www.so-ups.ru // Report on the functioning of the UES of Russia in 2021. Prepared in accordance with the «Rules for the Development and Approval of schemes and programs for the Long-term Development of the Electric Power industry» (approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 823 of 17.10.2009).
Engle, Robert F.; Liu, Ta-Chung (1972), Effects of Aggregation Over Time on Dynamic Characteristics of An Econometric Model , Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth. Studies in income and wealth, 2, NBER, p. 673, https://www.nber.org/chapters/c2787.pdf
Grandmont, Jean-Michel On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles . Econometrica, vol. 53, no. 5, 1985, pp. 995-1045.
Greenwald, Bruce and Stiglitz, Joseph E., Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles (1988). NBER Working Paper No. w2494.
Andrianov D.L. Dynamic stochastic models of general economic equilibrium / Andrianov D.L., Shultz D.N., Oshchepkov I.A. // UEkS. 2014. No.7 (67). URL:https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/dinamicheskie-stohasticheskie-modeli-obschego-ekonomicheskogo-ravnovesiya (date of application: 04/28/2022).
Babich V.I. Organization of the energy management system at the enterprise / V.I. Babich, S. A. Sinitsyn // Energy security and energy conservation. 2009. No. 6. pp. 28-33.
Ivanov V.A. Analysis of energy consumption in various industries // Internet-journal «NAUKOVEDENIE». -2015, Volume 7, No. 1.
Igor N. von Beckman Nonlinear dynamics of complex systems: theory and practice. - Materials for a course of lectures and a textbook. Moscow. -2018.
Sinitsyn S.A. // Energy security and energy saving. -2009, No. 6, pp. 28-33.
Shanchenko N.I. Lectures on econometrics // -Ulyanovsk: UlSTU, 2008. -139 p. ISBN 978-5-9795-0504-6.
Federal Law No. 35-FZ of 26.03.2003 (as amended on 27.12.2019) «On Electric Power»
[Electronic resource]: https://journal.tinkoff.ru/news/review-rus-energy / (date of formation: 04/28/2022).
[Electronic resource] IEA. The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy de-mand and CO2 emissions.: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020/context-a-world-in-lockdown#abstract (accessed: 04/28/2022).
[Electronic resource] JSC «SO UES» www.so-ups.ru // Report on the functioning of the UES of Russia in 2021. Prepared in accordance with the «Rules for the Development and Approval of schemes and programs for the Long-term Development of the Electric Power industry» (approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 823 of 17.10.2009).
Keywords:
autoregression model, dynamics model, growth rates, electricity production, time series, adaptive methods.
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