Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 in Moscow
( Pp. 99-105)

More about authors
Koltsova Eleonora M. doktor tehnicheskih nauk, professor; zaveduyuschaya kafedroy IKT
Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia Kurkina Elena S. doktor fiziko-matematicheskih nauk, docent; professor kafedry IKT; veduschiy nauchnyy sotrudnik fakulteta VMK
Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia; Lomonosow Moscow State University Vasetsky Aleksey M. starshiy prepodavatel kafedry IKT
Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia
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Abstract:
To model the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus in Moscow, a discrete logistic equation describing the increase in the number of cases was used. To verify the adequacy of the mathematical model, the simulation results were compared with the spread of coronavirus in China. The parameters of the logistics equation for Moscow on the interval [01.03-08.04] were defined. A comparison of growth rates of the number of infected COVID-19 for a number of European, Asian countries and the USA is given. Four scenarios of the spread of COVID-19 in Moscow were considered. For each scenario, curves of the increase in the number of infected people and graphs of the increase in the total number of cases were obtained, and the dynamics of infection spread by day was studied. Peak times, epidemic periods, the number of infected people at the peak and their growth were determined.
How to Cite:
Koltsova E.M., Kurkina E.S., Vasetsky A.M., (2020), MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 IN MOSCOW. Computational Nanotechnology, 1 => 99-105. DOI: 10.33693/2313-223X-2020-7-1-99-105
Reference list:
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Malthus T.R. An essay on the principle of population as it affects the future improvement of society, with remarks on the speculations of Mr M. Godwin // Condorcet, and other writers. London: J. Johnson. 1798.
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URL:htt s://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019 E2 80 9320 coronavirus pandemic data/Mainland China medical cases
URL: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
URL: https://ncov.blog/countries/ru/77/
Keywords:
coronavirus COVID-19, mathematical modeling, logistic equation, epidemic development scenarios.


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