# Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 in Moscow

( Pp. 99-105)

More about authors

Kurkina Elena S.
doktor fiziko-matematicheskih nauk, docent; professor kafedry IKT; veduschiy nauchnyy sotrudnik fakulteta VMK

Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia; Lomonosow Moscow State University Vasetsky Aleksey M. starshiy prepodavatel kafedry IKT

Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia Koltsova Eleonora M. Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor; Head at the Department of Information Computer Technologies

Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia

Moscow, Russian Federation

Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia; Lomonosow Moscow State University Vasetsky Aleksey M. starshiy prepodavatel kafedry IKT

Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia Koltsova Eleonora M. Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor; Head at the Department of Information Computer Technologies

Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia

Moscow, Russian Federation

Abstract:

To model the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus in Moscow, a discrete logistic equation describing the increase in the number of cases was used. To verify the adequacy of the mathematical model, the simulation results were compared with the spread of coronavirus in China. The parameters of the logistics equation for Moscow on the interval [01.03-08.04] were defined. A comparison of growth rates of the number of infected COVID-19 for a number of European, Asian countries and the USA is given. Four scenarios of the spread of COVID-19 in Moscow were considered. For each scenario, curves of the increase in the number of infected people and graphs of the increase in the total number of cases were obtained, and the dynamics of infection spread by day was studied. Peak times, epidemic periods, the number of infected people at the peak and their growth were determined.

How to Cite:

Kurkina E.S., Vasetsky A.M., Koltsova E.M., (2020), MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 IN MOSCOW. Computational Nanotechnology, 1 => 99-105.

Reference list:

Verhulst P.F. Mathematical researches into the law of population growth increase. Nouveaux M moires de l Acad mie Royale des Sciences et Belles-Lettres de Bruxelles. 1845. Vol. 18. Pp. 1-42.

Malthus T.R. An essay on the principle of population as it affects the future improvement of society, with remarks on the speculations of Mr M. Godwin // Condorcet, and other writers. London: J. Johnson. 1798.

Pearl R., Reed L.J. On the rate of growth of the population of the United States since 1790 and its mathematical representation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 1920. Vol. 6. No. 6. P. 275.

Riznichenko G.YU. Matematicheskie modeli v biologii. M.- Izhevsk: RKHD. 2002.

Riznichenko G.YU., Rubin A.B. Matematicheskie metody v biologii i ekologii. Biofizicheskaya dinamika produktsionnykh protsessov: uchebnik dlya bakalavriata i magistratury. V 2 ch. CH. 2. 3-e izd., pererab. i dop. M.: YUrayt, 2018. 185 s. (Seriya: Universitety Rossii).

Cherniha R., Davydovych V. A mathematical model for the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak. arXiv preprint arXiv: 2004.01487. 2020.

Qi C. et al. Model studies on the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden. arXiv preprint arXiv: 2004.01575. 2020.

Feygenbaum M. Universal nost v povedenii nelineynykh sistem // Uspekhi fizicheskikh nauk. 1983. T. 141. № 10. S. 343-374.

Kol tsova E.M., Gordeev L.S. Metody sinergetiki v khimii i khimicheskoy tekhnologii. M.: KHimiya, 1999. 256 c.

Kol tsova E.M., Tret yakov YU.D., Gordeev L.S., Vertegel A.A. Nelineynaya dinamika i termodinamika neobratimykh protsessov v khimii i khimicheskoy tekhnologii. M.: KHimiya, 2001.

URL:htt s://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019 E2 80 9320 coronavirus pandemic data/Mainland China medical cases

URL: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

URL: https://ncov.blog/countries/ru/77/

Malthus T.R. An essay on the principle of population as it affects the future improvement of society, with remarks on the speculations of Mr M. Godwin // Condorcet, and other writers. London: J. Johnson. 1798.

Pearl R., Reed L.J. On the rate of growth of the population of the United States since 1790 and its mathematical representation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 1920. Vol. 6. No. 6. P. 275.

Riznichenko G.YU. Matematicheskie modeli v biologii. M.- Izhevsk: RKHD. 2002.

Riznichenko G.YU., Rubin A.B. Matematicheskie metody v biologii i ekologii. Biofizicheskaya dinamika produktsionnykh protsessov: uchebnik dlya bakalavriata i magistratury. V 2 ch. CH. 2. 3-e izd., pererab. i dop. M.: YUrayt, 2018. 185 s. (Seriya: Universitety Rossii).

Cherniha R., Davydovych V. A mathematical model for the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak. arXiv preprint arXiv: 2004.01487. 2020.

Qi C. et al. Model studies on the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden. arXiv preprint arXiv: 2004.01575. 2020.

Feygenbaum M. Universal nost v povedenii nelineynykh sistem // Uspekhi fizicheskikh nauk. 1983. T. 141. № 10. S. 343-374.

Kol tsova E.M., Gordeev L.S. Metody sinergetiki v khimii i khimicheskoy tekhnologii. M.: KHimiya, 1999. 256 c.

Kol tsova E.M., Tret yakov YU.D., Gordeev L.S., Vertegel A.A. Nelineynaya dinamika i termodinamika neobratimykh protsessov v khimii i khimicheskoy tekhnologii. M.: KHimiya, 2001.

URL:htt s://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019 E2 80 9320 coronavirus pandemic data/Mainland China medical cases

URL: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

URL: https://ncov.blog/countries/ru/77/

Keywords:

coronavirus COVID-19, mathematical modeling, logistic equation, epidemic development scenarios.

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