Dynamics of Conflict States of Critical Information Infrastructure: From Vulnerabilities of Infrastructural Genesis to Cyberattacks and Information Security
( Pp. 236-249)
More about authors
Kochedykov Sergey S.
Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Associate Professor; associate professor, Department of Information Security, associate professor, Department of KB-4 Intelligent Information Security Systems; MIREA – Russian Technological University
National Research University “Moscow Power Engineering Institute” (MPEI)
Moscow, Russian Federation
National Research University “Moscow Power Engineering Institute” (MPEI)
Moscow, Russian Federation
Abstract:
The article proposes a dynamic model of the development of an infrastructure conflict in a critical information infrastructure (CII) as a theoretical basis for ensuring information security. It is shown that a cyberattack is a special case of a destructive provocateur of an infrastructure conflict, and the escalation of information security threats is determined by the accumulation of vulnerabilities of an infrastructure genesis, the mismatch of management loops, and the structural sensitivity of the infrastructure. A mathematical model of the dynamics of a conflict state has been developed, which includes parameters of destructive influence, physical recovery, and adaptive management. Threshold escalation conditions and criteria of dynamic stability of CII are introduced. A stochastic model of phase development of an infrastructure conflict based on the Markov approach is proposed. The obtained results allow us to consider the provision of CII information security as a process of managing the dynamics of an infrastructure conflict and provide for the formalization of adaptive response mechanisms in the face of cyberattacks.
How to Cite:
Kochedykov S.S. Dynamics of conflict states of critical information infrastructure: From vulnerabilities of infrastructural genesis to cyberattacks and information security. Computational Nanotechnology. 13, 2 (2026), 236–249. DOI: 10.33693/2313-223X-2026-13-2-236-249. EDN: YAXUOK
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Petrenko S. Cyber resilience. Gistrup, Denmark: River Publishers, 2019. 444 p. (River Publishers Series in Security and Digital Forensics). ISBN: 978-87-7022-116-0.
Dushkin, A.V., Kochedykov, S.S., Novoseltsev V.I. Analysis of conflict interaction of actuators of automated control systems. Industrial Automated Control Systems and Controllers. 2017. No. 10. Pp. 8–16. (In Rus.)
Evnevich E.L., Fatkieva R.R. Modeling information processes in conflict situations. Cybersecurity Issues. 2020. No. 2 (36). Pp. 42–49. (In Rus.). DOI: 10.21681/2311-3456-2020-2-42-49.
Izrailov K.E., Buinevich M.V. A method for detecting attacks of various origins on complex objects based on state information. Part 1: Background and scheme. Cybersecurity Issues. 2023. No. 3 (55). Pp. 90–100. (In Rus.). DOI: 10.21681/2311-3456-2023-3-90-100.
Izrailov K.E., Buinevich M.V. A method for detecting attacks of various origins on complex objects based on state information. Part 2: Algorithm, model and experiment. Cybersecurity Issues. 2023. No. 4 (56). Pp. 80–93. (In Rus.). DOI: 10.21681/2311-3456-2023-4-80-93.
Conflict-active project management for the development of information security systems for infocommunication networks. V.I. Novoseltsev, S.S. Kochedykov, D.E. Orlova, K.A. Plushik (eds.). Moscow: Infra-M, 2023. 235 p. (Scientific Thought). ISBN: 978-5-16-018194-3. DOI: 10.12737/1921360.
Kotenko I.V., Sayenko I.B., Zakharchenko R.I., Velichko D.V. Subsystem of prevention of computer attacks on objects of critical information infrastructure: Analysis of functioning and implementation. Cybersecurity Issues. 2023. No. 1 (53). Pp. 13–27. (In Rus.). DOI: 10.21681/2311-3456-2023-1-13-27.
Kochedykov S.S. Axiomatics of infrastructural conflict as a basis for ensuring information security of critical information infrastructure. Industrial Automated Control Systems and Controllers. 2026. No. 2. Pp. 20–33. (In Rus.). DOI: 10.25791/asu.2.2026.1641.
Kochedykov S.S. Infrastructural conflict of critical information infrastructure software in context of destructive effects of cyber attacks. Computational Nanotechnology. 2025. Vol. 12. No. 4. Pp. 143–154. (In Rus.). DOI: 10.33693/2313-223X-2025-12-4-143-154. EDN: HJYCWE.
Kochedykov S.S. Methodology for diagnosing states of infrastructural conflict and monitoring information security of critical information infrastructure. Computational Nanotechnology. 2026. Vol. 13. No. 1. Pp. 145–158. (In Rus.). DOI: 10.33693/2313-223X-2026-13-1-145-158. EDN: NBBCJB.
Kochedykov S.S. Modeling cyber attacks on CII facilities in conditions of infrastructural conflict using the example of a Petri net. Security, Security, Communications. 2026. No. 11-2. Pp. 133–138. (In Rus.)
Kubarev A.V., Lapsar A.P., Asyutikov A.A. Synthesis of a model of a critical information infrastructure facility for the safe functioning of a technical system under conditions of destructive information impact. Cybersecurity Issues. 2020. No. 6 (40). Pp. 48–56. (In Rus.). DOI: 10.21681/2311-3456-2020-06-48-56.
Lavrova D.S., Zegzhda D.P., Zaitseva E.A. Modeling the network infrastructure of complex objects to solve the problem of countering cyber-attacks. Cybersecurity Issues. 2019. No. 2 (30). Pp. 13–20. (In Rus.). DOI: 10.21681/2311-3456-2019-2-13-20.
Makarenko S.I. Methodology for substantiating test information technology impacts that ensure the rational completeness of the audit of the security of a critical information infrastructure facility. Cybersecurity Issues. 2021. No. 6 (46). Pp. 12–25. (In Rus.). DOI: 10.21681/2311-3456-2021-6-12-25.
Maksimova E.A. Axiomatics of infrastructural destructivism of the subject of critical information infrastructure. Informatization and Communications. 2022. No. 1. Pp. 68–74. DOI: 10.34219/2078-8320-2022-13-1-68-74. (In Rus.).
Maksimova E.A. Life cycle analysis of the subject of critical information infrastructure in the context of infrastructural destructivism. Information Protection. Inside. 2021. No. 5 (101). Pp. 4–10. (In Rus.)
Maksimova E.A., Buinevich M.V. A method for assessing the infrastructural stability of subjects of critical information infrastructure. Bulletin of the Ural Federal District. Information Security. 2022. No. 1 (43). Pp. 50–63. (In Rus.). DOI: 10.14529/secur220107.
Maksimova E.A., Buinevich M.V., Shestakov A.V. Proactive information security management of subjects of critical information infrastructure as complex organizational systems with dynamically changing structure. Bulletin of the Voronezh Institute of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. 2023. No. 2. Pp. 49–59. (In Rus.).
Parshutkin A.V. Conceptual model of interaction of conflicting information and telecommunication systems. Cybersecurity Issues. 2014. No. 5 (8). Pp. 2–6. (In Rus.)
Petrenko S.A. Cyber resilience of Industry 4.0. St. Petersburg: Athena, 2020. 256 p. ISBN: 978-5-6045272-0-7.
Cherevan A.S., Lapsar A.P. Problems of floating vulnerabilities in ensuring the security of mobile applications. Information Technology Security. 2024. Vol. 31. No. 2. Pp. 111–120. (In Rus.). DOI: 10.26583/bit.2024.2.07.
Kochedykov S.S., Grechishnikov E.V., Dushkin A.V., Orlova D.E. The mathematical model of cyber attacks on the critical information system. Journal of Physics: Conference Series. 2019. Vol. 1202. P. 12013. DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/1202/1/012013.
Petrenko S. Cyber resilience. Gistrup, Denmark: River Publishers, 2019. 444 p. (River Publishers Series in Security and Digital Forensics). ISBN: 978-87-7022-116-0.
Keywords:
adaptive control, infrastructure restoration, dynamic stability, information security, infrastructural anomaly, infrastructure conflict, cyberattack, critical information infrastructure, Markov process, threshold escalation, phase model.
