Saudi-Iran 2023 Reconciliation: Genuine Peace or Temporary Truce
( Pp. 154-160)
More about authors
Alkhajal Mohammed M.M.
postgraduate student
Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin
Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation Vladimir D. Kamynin Dr. Sci. (Hist.), Professor, Honored worker of higher school of Russia, Professor of the Department of Theory and History of International Relations
Institute of Philosophy and Law of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin
Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation; Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation
Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin
Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation Vladimir D. Kamynin Dr. Sci. (Hist.), Professor, Honored worker of higher school of Russia, Professor of the Department of Theory and History of International Relations
Institute of Philosophy and Law of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin
Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation; Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation
Abstract:
In March 2023, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic relations through Chinese mediation after a long-standing rift. While many broadly view this step as a move toward regional stability, upon closer examination, the picture turns out to be much more complex than it initially appears. This article examines the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and attempts to answer the question: what possible future scenarios exist for the development of Saudi-Iranian relations? To address this question, the study focuses on analyzing Saudi-Iranian relations, taking into account challenges such as the Palestine-Israel conflict, regional competition, and external factors, including the expansion of Israeli attacks in the region, particularly the strike on Qatar. Three scenarios are presented: the first assumes that the current détente is a temporary truce, a short-term and opportunistic pause in structurally imposed competition, which will lead to a return to open hostility through one of the unresolved crises. The second scenario points to a path toward deeper cooperation, including coordination on security issues, settlement of regional conflicts (in Palestine, Yemen, and Lebanon), and economic partnership in exchange for mutual concessions, driven by a common existential threat that forces the two powers into collective balancing against external threats. The third scenario describes the maintenance of managed competition in a state of constant cold peace, which represents a rational compromise for two regional superpowers unable to achieve true long-term peace.
How to Cite:
Alkhajal, M.M.M., Kamynin, V.D. (2026). Saudi-Iran 2023 reconciliation: Genuine peace or temporary truce. Sociopolitical Sciences, 16(1), 154–160. EDN: KPGGNY
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Hadzikadunic E. Iran-Saudi ties: Can history project their trajectory? Singapore Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore. 2019. No. 1-22. Рp. 1–22.
Hiro D. Cold War in the Islamic world: Saudi Arabia, Iran and the struggle for supremacy. Oxford University Press, 2019. 432 р.
Mabon S. The struggle for supremacy in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Iran. Cambridge University Press, 2023. 310 р.
Mearsheimer J. The tragedy of great power politics. W.W. Norton & Company, 2014. 592 p.
Mirza M.N., Abbas H., Qaisrani I.H. Structural sources of Saudi-Iran rivalry and competition for the sphere of influence. Sage Open. 2021. Vol. 11. No. 3. Рр. 1–9.
Okruhlik G. Saudi Arabian-Iranian relations: External rapprochement and internal consolidation. Middle East Policy. 2003. Vol. 10. No. 2. Рp. 113–125.
Üçağaç A. Strategic positioning of middle powers in the emerging multipolar world order: The case of Saudi Arabia. Nous Academy Journal. 2025. No. 5. С. 1–15.
Keywords:
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Middle East, Houthis, conflict, Axis of Resistance.
