Uncertainty of Disaster: Problems of Scientific Analysis
( Pp. 14-21)
More about authors
Vyacheslav M. Klyachin
Dr. Sci. (Law), Professor
Academy of Management of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia
Moscow, Russian Federation
Academy of Management of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia
Moscow, Russian Federation
Abstract:
The article examines the problems of the methodology for studying uncertainty using examples of disasters of a humanitarian and man-made nature. Using the apparatus of the theory of catastrophes, the ambiguity of the manifestation of uncertainty at various stages of the development of the catastrophe is shown. The manifestation of the phenomenon of absolute uncertainty during the initial period of the culmination stage of the disaster is noted.
How to Cite:
Klyachin V. M. Uncertainty of Disaster: Problems of Scientific Analysis // ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AND LEGAL PRACTICE. 2025. Vol. 21. № 2. P. 14-21. (in Russ.) DOI: 10.33693/2541-8025-2025-21-2-14-21. EDN: HSUCFD
Reference list:
Arnold V.I. Catastrophe Theory. Moscow: Editorial URSS, 2009. —136 p.
Plotinsky Yu.M. Models of Social Processes. Moscow: Logos, 2001. Pp. 207.
V.N. Grechukhin. Mathematical Description of the Hysteresis Loop // Bulletin of ISU. Issue 1. 2008. Pp. 1–4; Vonsovsky S.V., Magnetism, Moscow, 1971, etc.
Arnold V.I. Catastrophe Theory. Moscow: Editorial URSS, 2009. Pp. 8–10.
Klyachin V.M. The Beginning of the Great Patriotic War: Catastrophe or Miscalculation // Eurasian Advocacy No. 3(28). 2017. Pp. 21–28.
Alekseev Yu.K., Sukhorukov A.P. Introduction to the Theory of Catastrophes —M.: Book House «LIBROKOM», 2013. P. 39.
Kovalev D.A., Sharyakov O.L., et al. Theory of Automatic Control / VShTE SPbGUPDT. —St. Petersburg, 2020. —P. 18–19.
Klyachin V.M. Applicability of the Provisions of the Theory of Automatic Control as a Methodology for Studying Emergencies Elimination Activities // Crisis Situations of a Socio-Political Nature and the Main Directions for Their Resolution in Light of the Modern Reform of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia: Proc. Thirteenth Int. Scientific and Practical Conf., November 25, 2011. M.: Academy of Management of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, 2011. P. 98–101.
Bryukhanov V.N., Kosov M.G., Protopopov S.P., et al.; Theory of Automatic Control: Textbook for Mechanical Engineering Specialties of Universities / Ed. Yu.M. Solomentsev. 3rd ed., reprinted —Moscow: Vysshaya shkola, 2000. 268 p.
Rylov M.I., Tikhonov M.N. After Chernobyl and Fukushima-1: Identification and Assessment of Uncertainties and Risks // Ecological Expertise. 2014. —No. 3. P. 24.
Yakovets Yu.V. Cycles. Crises. Forecasts. —Moscow: Nauka, 1999. P. 288.
Zimina L.Yu. Methodological Foundations of Intra-Company Planning.—Ulyanovsk, Ulyanovsk State University, 2007. Pp. 17–21.
Dyachenko A.A., Grabovoi I.D., Ilyin L.N. Chernobyl: Disaster. Feat. Lessons and Conclusions: scientific. -pub. mon. —M., Inter-Vesy, 1996. Pp. 183–192.
Isaev A.V., Drabkin A.V. The Beginning of the War. June 22. Chronicle of the Greatest Catastrophe. —M.: AST Publishing House: OGIZ; Yauza Publishing House, 2025. Pp. 221–228.
Surmin Yu.P. Systems Analysis: Textbook —Kiev: MAUP, 2003. Pp. 178–187.
Plotinsky Yu.M. Theoretical and Imperial Models of Social Processes: Textbook. for universities. —M.: Logos, 1998. Page 187.
Kochkarov A.A., Salpagarov M.B. Modeling the destruction of complex systems. Structural aspects // Preprints of the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics. 2007. No. 33. 20 p.
Zolotarev V.A. (ed.) History of Russia's military strategy. —M.: Kuchkovo pole; Polygraphresources, 2000. P/ 172.
Kiselev A.N., Checherov K.P. Model of the destruction process of the reactor of the 4th power unit of the Chernobyl NPP // Atomic energy, Vol. 91, Issue 6, December 2001. Pp. 425–434.
Arguments and Facts of Belarus. 26.04.2016. 18:28. URL: www.aif.ru.
Klyachin V.M. Theoretical Approaches to the Study of Innocent Harm in International Law under Conditions of Uncertainty. Problems of Economics and Legal Practice. Vol. 20. No. 2. 2024. Pp. 164–169.
URL: https://people.onliner.by/2021/04/26/rassledovanie-avarii-na-chaes-i-sud.
Zhukov G.K. Memories and Reflections. In 2 vols. Vol. 1. —M.: OLMA Media Group, 2015. P. 267.
Dolgin N.N. Management of accidents at nuclear power plants // Civil protection. 1996. No. 5. P. 89–91.
Plotinsky Yu.M. Models of Social Processes. Moscow: Logos, 2001. Pp. 207.
V.N. Grechukhin. Mathematical Description of the Hysteresis Loop // Bulletin of ISU. Issue 1. 2008. Pp. 1–4; Vonsovsky S.V., Magnetism, Moscow, 1971, etc.
Arnold V.I. Catastrophe Theory. Moscow: Editorial URSS, 2009. Pp. 8–10.
Klyachin V.M. The Beginning of the Great Patriotic War: Catastrophe or Miscalculation // Eurasian Advocacy No. 3(28). 2017. Pp. 21–28.
Alekseev Yu.K., Sukhorukov A.P. Introduction to the Theory of Catastrophes —M.: Book House «LIBROKOM», 2013. P. 39.
Kovalev D.A., Sharyakov O.L., et al. Theory of Automatic Control / VShTE SPbGUPDT. —St. Petersburg, 2020. —P. 18–19.
Klyachin V.M. Applicability of the Provisions of the Theory of Automatic Control as a Methodology for Studying Emergencies Elimination Activities // Crisis Situations of a Socio-Political Nature and the Main Directions for Their Resolution in Light of the Modern Reform of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia: Proc. Thirteenth Int. Scientific and Practical Conf., November 25, 2011. M.: Academy of Management of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, 2011. P. 98–101.
Bryukhanov V.N., Kosov M.G., Protopopov S.P., et al.; Theory of Automatic Control: Textbook for Mechanical Engineering Specialties of Universities / Ed. Yu.M. Solomentsev. 3rd ed., reprinted —Moscow: Vysshaya shkola, 2000. 268 p.
Rylov M.I., Tikhonov M.N. After Chernobyl and Fukushima-1: Identification and Assessment of Uncertainties and Risks // Ecological Expertise. 2014. —No. 3. P. 24.
Yakovets Yu.V. Cycles. Crises. Forecasts. —Moscow: Nauka, 1999. P. 288.
Zimina L.Yu. Methodological Foundations of Intra-Company Planning.—Ulyanovsk, Ulyanovsk State University, 2007. Pp. 17–21.
Dyachenko A.A., Grabovoi I.D., Ilyin L.N. Chernobyl: Disaster. Feat. Lessons and Conclusions: scientific. -pub. mon. —M., Inter-Vesy, 1996. Pp. 183–192.
Isaev A.V., Drabkin A.V. The Beginning of the War. June 22. Chronicle of the Greatest Catastrophe. —M.: AST Publishing House: OGIZ; Yauza Publishing House, 2025. Pp. 221–228.
Surmin Yu.P. Systems Analysis: Textbook —Kiev: MAUP, 2003. Pp. 178–187.
Plotinsky Yu.M. Theoretical and Imperial Models of Social Processes: Textbook. for universities. —M.: Logos, 1998. Page 187.
Kochkarov A.A., Salpagarov M.B. Modeling the destruction of complex systems. Structural aspects // Preprints of the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics. 2007. No. 33. 20 p.
Zolotarev V.A. (ed.) History of Russia's military strategy. —M.: Kuchkovo pole; Polygraphresources, 2000. P/ 172.
Kiselev A.N., Checherov K.P. Model of the destruction process of the reactor of the 4th power unit of the Chernobyl NPP // Atomic energy, Vol. 91, Issue 6, December 2001. Pp. 425–434.
Arguments and Facts of Belarus. 26.04.2016. 18:28. URL: www.aif.ru.
Klyachin V.M. Theoretical Approaches to the Study of Innocent Harm in International Law under Conditions of Uncertainty. Problems of Economics and Legal Practice. Vol. 20. No. 2. 2024. Pp. 164–169.
URL: https://people.onliner.by/2021/04/26/rassledovanie-avarii-na-chaes-i-sud.
Zhukov G.K. Memories and Reflections. In 2 vols. Vol. 1. —M.: OLMA Media Group, 2015. P. 267.
Dolgin N.N. Management of accidents at nuclear power plants // Civil protection. 1996. No. 5. P. 89–91.
Keywords:
disaster models, methodology for studying the uncertainty of disasters, absolute uncertainty..
Related Articles
INTERNATIONAL LAW Pages: 164-168 DOI: 10.33693/2541-8025-2024-20-2-164-168 Issue №102671
Theoretical Approaches to the Study of Innocent Injury in International Law under Uncertainty
innocent harm
foreign experience
concept
disasters
absolute uncertainty.
Show more
