Criminological model combating organized crime: the practical aspects of implementation
( Pp. 26-30)

Article is devoted to constructing a model of organized crime. Construction of a quantitative model in the fight against crime must always be preceded by theoretical modeling. First, the hypothesis, then it formed the basis of a theoretical model considered negative socio-legal phenomenon, and then you can proceed to the construction of a quantitative model. Once the model is formed, its reliability is recognized as suitable, you can proceed to its study. Questions of construction of models of crime are the focus and foreign criminologists. So, these issues have been studied by Steven Gottlieb, Sheldon Arenberg, Raj Singh, John Hagan, Gennaro F. Vito, Edward J. Latessa, Deborah G. Wilson, Ronald J. Hy, Douglas G. Feig, Robert M. Regoli, Edwin S. Johnson, Hans Levenbach, James P. Cleary, David F. Greenberg, Larry S. Miller, John T. Whitehead, James Alan Fox. With implementation of the proposed methods is invited to focus on the use of mathematical apparatus of the theory of probability and mathematical statistics. This approach makes it possible to provide the required ratio of simulated characteristics and the actual properties of the object. Criminal statistical picture of combating organized crime, consisting of absolute indicators, characterizing the amount of proven crimes committed by organized groups and individuals of the charges they committed does not reflect the real state of the crime situation in the area under consideration. Instead normally used in practice in the parameter modeling process is proposed to form predictive models using probability characteristics. This approach will significantly expand the number of possible options for themselves and predictive models to assess their reliability, ie ability to reliably reflect the characteristics of the simulated object - combating organized crime. The proposed approach allows you to create quantitative models that have the potential not only to scientific knowledge, but they are practically oriented, since they allow generate recommendations for the planning of specific measures to counter organized crime. They have a certain value of such probabilistic models and practical refractions provisions of criminal policy. The society should see that law enforcement agencies have a future-oriented, clear and practically implemented method of forecasting, allowing adequate assessment of the future of the state, trends and patterns of development to counter organized crime. Work focused on a fairly wide range of readers. It seems that it can cause not only of interest from experts in criminal policy and criminology, lawmakers and law enforcers, but also students and graduate law schools interested in this problem.

Vasin Y.G., (2017), CRIMINOLOGICAL MODEL COMBATING ORGANIZED CRIME: THE PRACTICAL ASPECTS OF IMPLEMENTATION. Gaps in Russian Legislation, 4 => 26-30.

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