NEW REGULARITIES IN THE DYNAMICS OF TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS AND EXPONENTIAL EVOLUTION
( Pp. 43-48)

More about authors
Olga S. Prichina
University «Synergy»
Moscow, Russian Federation Viktor D. Orekhov
International Institute of Management LINK
Zhukovsky, Russian Federation Gorshenin Vladimir P. doktor ekonomicheskih nauk, professor, sovetnik generalnogo direktora
NPO Lavochkin
Abstract:
Now the world is on the verge of a new technological revolution, but what will it be and what is the system of these revolutions? A number of authors interpret differently the current changes in the world of technology and the direction of their further development. In this paper, the task is to investigate the patterns of the dynamics of industrial revolutions and the accompanying exponential evolution of technology. The methodology of the study is based on a mathematical analysis of the works of previous authors, including the use of the historical method. The characteristic features of the phenomenon under consideration and their quantitative characteristics are revealed, hypotheses about possible regularities are formulated. Further, the mathematical processing of the available data is performed and new relationships between the parameters are revealed. Then, the obtained mathematical regularity is compared with the data of various authors considered earlier and the degree of their agreement is determined. When analyzing the patterns of exponential evolution, mathematical modeling of the key parameters of the corresponding industrial epochs is performed. New regularities in the dynamics of technological revolutions are revealed. It is shown that the dates of these revolutions are expressed by the geometric progression Tn = 50 + 1970-(1 - 2-n/2). Technological revolutions are connected in pairs and the time intervals between pairs are two times different. The phenomenon of exponential evolution of characteristic indicators of revolutions is studied, and the change in these indicators over a couple of technological epochs is described by a single exponential: 1896, 1932 (electricity generation) and 1957, 1975 (Moore's law and supercomputer performance). The results of the research can be used, first of all, in the field of forecasting and long-term strategic planning for the development of science and technology. In view of the very high importance of the results obtained and the availability of alternative opinions, it is also important to conduct studies on a comprehensive verification of the results and hypotheses. The precise identification of the direction of industrial revolutions is important for the economy, as it provides guidance to inventors, innovators, investors and legislators in their industrial development activities. The absence of such guidelines leads to a delay in the rates of growth of the corresponding technology, stagnation of social development and losses amounting to many trillions of dollars. In different countries, the processes of understanding the leading areas of technological development and the mastery of new technologies are proceeding at different rates [6, 89-93]. The laggards are forced to purchase expensive innovative products from more developed countries, and themselves to produce cheaper goods and services characteristic of the previous technological epochs [7, 64-67]. As a result, these countries are poorer. Therefore, from the point of view of the efficiency of the labor economy, it is important to correctly understand the dynamics of technological revolutions and the current trends in their movement. The value of this work is that it is aimed at quantifying the technological changes that occur and gives grounds for distinguishing revolutionary changes from exponential evolution. The work can be used by specialists in the field of labor economics to predict and plan GDP per capita growth taking into account future radical changes in the field of technological development and the formation of a knowledge economy.
How to Cite:
Olga S.P., Viktor D.O., Gorshenin V.P., (2017), NEW REGULARITIES IN THE DYNAMICS OF TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS AND EXPONENTIAL EVOLUTION. Economic Problems and Legal Practice, 6 => 43-48.
Reference list:
Toffler A., The Third Wave, London, Pan Books Ltd, 1981.
Rifkin, J.The Third Industrial Revolution How Lateral Power Is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World, - New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011. - 291 pp.
Schwab, K. The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Crown Business, New York, 2017, 192 p. (Perevod na russkiy yazyk SHvab K. CHetvertaya promyshlennaya revolyutsiya / K. SHvab - Eksmo , 2016).
Orekhov V.D. Sovremennoe ponimanie kontseptsii znanie . Vestnik MIM LINK, №2, 2016.
Kondrat ev N.D. Bol shie tsikly kon yunktury // Voprosy kon yunktury. - 1925. - T. I. - Vyp. 1.
Lenkovskaya R.R., SHilovskaya A.L. Zashchita informatsii v seti internet // Problemy ekonomiki i yuridicheskoy praktiki. 2017. № 5. S. 89-93.
Lenkovskaya R.R., SHilovskaya A.L. Osobennosti zashchity avtorskikh prav v seti internet// Sotsial no-politicheskie nauki. 2017. № 5. S. 64-67.
Schumpeter J. A. A Theorist s Comment on the Current Business Cycle. Journal of the American Statistical Association V.30(189), 1935.
Vinge V. The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era. Whole Earth Review, 1993.
Kurzweil R. The Singularity Is Near. N. Y.: Viking, 2005.
Kapitsa S.P. Paradoksy rosta: zakony global nogo razvitiya chelovechestva. - M., 2012. - S. 79.
Tateisi K. The Eternal Venture Spirit: An Executive s Practical Philosophy. Cambridge, Mass.: Productivity Press, 1989.
Orekhov V.D. Prognozirovanie razvitiya chelovechestva s uchetom faktora znaniya. Monogr. - ZHukovskiy: MIM LINK, 2015. - 210 s.
Foerster, H. von, Mora, P. and Amiot, L. Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026. Science 132:1291-5. 1960.
Moore G. Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits. Electronics, pp. 114-117, April 19, 1965.
Zakon Mura. - Vikipediya, 2014. https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki
Mirovaya energeticheskaya statistika. Ezhegodnik 2016, https://yearbook.enerdata.ru
Stepanova N.A., Lenkovskaya R.R., Gridneva O.V., Neznamova A.A., Lutovinova N.V., ZHesterov P.V. Pravovoe regulirovanie predprinimatel skoy deyatel nosti. Uchebnoe posobie / Moskva, 2017.
Keywords:
the technological revolution, exponential growth, evolution, megatrend, the industrial revolution, knowledge.


Related Articles

1. SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTIONS Pages: 14-16 Issue №11007
UNDERSTANDING OF RATIO OF SCIENCE AND SOCIETY E. AGATSCI
activities knowledge ideology cognitive the context
Show more
REGIONAL AND SECTORAL ECONOMICS Pages: 177-185 Issue №24178
Challenges in Human Capital Development in Russia in the Age of Knowledge-Based Economy
human capital tertiary education educational paradigm quality of education knowledge
Show more
12. OTHER Pages: 333-337 Issue №5584
COGNITION AND JUSTIFICATION - THE TWO ASPECTSOF PROVING IN CRIMINAL PROCEDURE
the theory of evidence in criminal process law of evidence knowledge proof
Show more
13. OTHER Pages: 286-291 Issue №4748
INFORMATION AND INFORMATIONAL-COMMUNICATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES (IT) IN ERA OF MODERN GLOBALIZATION
globalization Informatics the information revolution information society information and communication technology (it)
Show more
8. Criminal law and criminology; Criminal enforcement law Pages: 253-255 Issue №12435
INSTITUTE OF MENTORING IN THE PENAL ENFORCEMENT SYSTEM: SOCIAL AND LEGAL ASPECT
mentor history knowledge teacher employee
Show more
III. PHILOSOPHICAL SCIENCES. 22. ONTOLOGY AND THEORY OF KNOWLEDGE Pages: 259-262 Issue №11740
«KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY»: PHILOSOPHICAL REFLECTION OF PHENOMENON
information knowledge knowledge society information society information technology
Show more
7. Criminal procedure Pages: 209-213 Issue №4982
SUBSTANTIATION AS A TYPE OF COGNITION AND ITS THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL MEANING
the criminal process proof proof knowledge research evidence
Show more
13. WORLD AND REGIONAL ECONOMY Pages: 185-188 Issue №4641
Evolutionary stages of development of institutional model of the European Union
The European Union evolution the institutional model the founding treaties normative-legal acts
Show more
miscellaneous Pages: 235-240 Issue №46030
The Evolution of Evidence and Evidence in the Domestic Criminal Process
evolution evidence proof criminal procedure Ancient Russia
Show more
13. MISCELLANIOUS Pages: 178-181 Issue №18017
System of methodological approaches in historical and pedagogical research
pedagogy history thinking science methodology
Show more